I recently read an interesting article entitled Our Panarchic Future by Thomas Homer-Dixon about the work of the ecologist Buzz Holling. In the article, he concludes:
Holling thinks the world is reaching "a stage of vulnerability that could trigger a rare and major pulse of social transformation." Humankind has experienced only three or four such pulses during its entire evolution, including the transition from hunter-gatherer communities to agricultural settlement, the industrial revolution, and the recent global communications revolution.
Today another pulse is about to begin. "The immense destruction that a new pulse signals is both frightening and creative," he writes.
"The only way to approach such a period, in which uncertainty is very large and one cannot predict what the future holds, is not to predict, but to experiment and act inventively and exuberantly via diverse adventures in living."
I agree, in a complex world, it is impossible to predict or to plan the future -- we need to experiment and learn what works and what does not work and continually modify our actions accordingly.
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