www.gurteen.com

Blog Post

The Law of Accelerating Returns by Ray Kurzweil

Posted to Gurteen Knowledge-Log by David Gurteen on 3 July 2002

 



Title

The Law of Accelerating Returns by Ray Kurzweil
WeblogGurteen Knowledge Log
Posted DateWednesday 3 July 2002 17:56 GDT
Posted ByDavid Gurteen
Linkshttp://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1 
CategoriesFuture
PeopleRay Kurzweil 
CountryUnited States

Quote:
An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). The "returns," such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There's even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity -- technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.
If you have any interest in the future of technology and the human race then this this article by Ray Kurzweil is an ABSOLUTE MUST READ. Mind-blowing.

And if you think you will still be around in 2029 you might like to follow this bet between Ray Kurzweil and Mitch Kapor on whether a computer - or "machine intelligence" - will have passed the Turing Test then.




If you are interested in Knowledge Management, the Knowledge Café or the role of conversation in organizational life then you my be interested in this online book I am writing on Conversational Leadership
David Gurteen


Follow me on Twitter

How to contact me


My Blog

Gurteen Knowledge Community
The Gurteen Knowledge Community
The Gurteen Knowledge Community is a global learning community of over 21,000 people in 160 countries across the world.

The community is for people who are committed to making a difference: people who wish to share and learn from each other and who strive to see the world differently, think differently and act differently.

Membership of the Gurteen Knowledge Community is free.
Knowledge Community



     

home
back
contact
request help
visitor book
Thursday 28 March 2024
04:59 PM GMT