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The Law of Accelerating Returns by Ray Kurzweil

Posted to Gurteen Knowledge-Log by David Gurteen on 3 July 2002



The Law of Accelerating Returns by Ray Kurzweil
WeblogGurteen Knowledge Log
Posted DateWednesday 3 July 2002 17:56 GDT
Posted ByDavid Gurteen
PeopleRay Kurzweil 
CountryUnited States

An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). The "returns," such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There's even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity -- technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.
If you have any interest in the future of technology and the human race then this this article by Ray Kurzweil is an ABSOLUTE MUST READ. Mind-blowing.

And if you think you will still be around in 2029 you might like to follow this bet between Ray Kurzweil and Mitch Kapor on whether a computer - or "machine intelligence" - will have passed the Turing Test then.

If you are interested in Knowledge Management, the Knowledge Café or the role of conversation in organizational life then you my be interested in this online book I am writing on Conversational Leadership
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