I have a confession to make, unlike many of my colleagues, I'm an AGI (artificial general intelligence) sceptic :-)
The prevailing logic seems to be that as we build more and more powerful processors that have a similar compute capacity to the human brain or similar massive connectivity that consciousness will simply emerge. "Experts" predict AGI will happen in the next 25 - 50 years.
I believe this is wishful thinking. We could connect a quadrillion or more iPhones and consciousness is not just going to emerge!
Today, we don't have a clue how the mind works or the nature of consciousness and until we do any prediction of when AGI might happen is just a wild guess.
I am sure we will crack it one day - just not in any of our lifetimes. That's my best guess :-)
But then I am no expert - here are David Deutch’s views.
And another sceptical view point from Jessica Conditt.
